Optimization of nonconventional wells under uncertainty using statistical proxies     

Vincent Artus  Louis J. Durlofsky  Jérôme Onwunalu  Khalid Aziz 《Computational Geosciences》2006,10(4):389-404

The determination of the optimal type and placement of a nonconventional well in a heterogeneous reservoir represents a challenging optimization problem. This determination is significantly more complicated if uncertainty in the reservoir geology is included in the optimization. In this study, a genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the deployment of nonconventional wells. Geological uncertainty is accounted for by optimizing over multiple reservoir models (realizations) subject to a prescribed risk attitude. To reduce the excessive computational requirements of the base method, a new statistical proxy (which provides fast estimates of the objective function) based on cluster analysis is introduced into the optimization process. This proxy provides an estimate of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the scenario performance, which enables the quantification of proxy uncertainty. Knowledge of the proxy-based performance estimate in conjunction with the proxy CDF enables the systematic selection of the most appropriate scenarios for full simulation. Application of the overall method for the optimization of monobore and dual-lateral well placement demonstrates the performance of the hybrid optimization procedure. Specifically, it is shown that by simulating only 10% or 20% of the scenarios (as determined by application of the proxy), optimization results very close to those achieved by simulating all cases are obtained.  相似文献   

中国能源安全与南海开发   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

于文金  朱大奎 《世界地理研究》2006,15(4):11-16

二十一世纪是海洋经济时代。随着我国经济的发展,能源问题日益突出。由于我国陆上石油资源日益枯竭,海上石油开发成为我国能源的战略重点。南海陆架新生代地层厚约2000～3000m。第三纪沉积有海相、陆相及海陆交互相,具有良好的生油和储油岩系。南海扼海上要冲-马六甲海峡,南海航线是我国能源的海上生命线,具有不可替代的战略地位。我国南海资源和海域主权遭受到极大的侵犯。发展深海油气的勘探和开发技术,开发我国的南海深水石油资源,维护我国海域主权已经刻不容缓。优先进行南海石油开发是破解我国石油能源困局的必选战略。  相似文献   

Rock fracturing by explosive energy: review of state-of-the-art   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M. R. Saharan  H. S. Mitri  J. L. Jethwa 《Fragblast: International Journal for Blasting and Fragmentation》2006,10(1):61-81

A study of the dynamic rock fracture initiation and propagation due to explosive energy is presented through a detailed state-of-the-art review. Explosive energy dissipation in crushing and fracturing is examined and the various means to enhance the explosive energy utilization for dynamic rock fracturing are reviewed. The study highlights the need for a better understanding of the dynamic fracturing process particularly in the presence of in situ stresses in the rock mass.  相似文献   

Optimization of SAGD Well Elevation     

Jason A. McLennan  Weishan Ren  Oy Leuangthong  C. V. Deutsch 《Natural Resources Research》2006,15(2):119-127

The application of steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) to recover heavy oil sands is becoming increasingly important in the northern Alberta McMurray Formation because of the vast resources/reserves accessible with this mechanism. Selecting the stratigraphic elevations of SAGD well pairs is a vital decision for reservoir evaluation and planning. The inherent uncertainty in the distribution of geological variables significantly influences this decision. Geostatistical simulation is used to capture geological uncertainty, which is used can be transformed into a distribution of the best possible well pair elevations. A simple exhaustive calculation scheme is used to determine the optimum stratigraphic location of a SAGD well pair where the recovery R is maximized. There are three basic steps to the methodology: (1) model the uncertainty in the top continuous bitumen (TCB) and bottom continuous bitumen (BCB) surfaces, (2) calculate the recovery at all possible elevation increments within the TCB and BCB interval, and (3) identify the elevation that maximizes R. This is repeated for multiple TCB/BCB pairs of surfaces to assess uncertainty. The methodology is described and implemented on a subset of data from the Athabasca Oilsands in Fort McMurray, Alberta.  相似文献   

Asking the right questions: environmental conflict in the case of Azerbaijan     

Shannon O'Lear  Angela Gray 《Area》2006,38(4):390-401

This paper contributes an empirical test of key themes of the literature on natural resource conflict. Survey and interview data from an ongoing project in Azerbaijan provide insights into an unexpected lack of conflict in Azerbaijan related to the environment, resources and energy despite the predictions of resource conflict literature. We contend that questions about public perceptions about the environment and other daily concerns are critical if we are to understand who is likely (or unlikely) to be involved in conflict and why. The data presented in this paper demonstrate that Azerbaijani citizens rank environmental and resource issues among their immediate concerns and their top concerns for the country. However, compared to other day-to-day concerns such as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and economic concerns, environment-related concerns do not appear to be sufficient to motivate widespread violent conflict or citizen dissent related to environmental or natural resource conditions.  相似文献   

Net Energy Payback and CO2 Emissions from Three Midwestern Wind Farms: An Update     

Scott W. White 《Natural Resources Research》2006,15(4):271-281

This paper updates a life-cycle net energy analysis and carbon dioxide emissions analysis of three Midwestern utility-scale wind systems. Both the Energy Payback Ratio (EPR) and CO₂ analysis results provide useful data for policy discussions regarding an efficient and low-carbon energy mix. The EPR is the amount of electrical energy produced for the lifetime of the power plant divided by the total amount of energy required to procure and transport the materials, build, operate, and decommission the power plants. The CO₂ analysis for each power plant was calculated from the life-cycle energy input data. A previous study also analyzed coal and nuclear fission power plants. At the time of that study, two of the three wind systems had less than a full year of generation data to project the life-cycle energy production. This study updates the analysis of three wind systems with an additional four to eight years of operating data. The EPR for the utility-scale wind systems ranges from a low of 11 for a two-turbine system in Wisconsin to 28 for a 143-turbine system in southwestern Minnesota. The EPR is 11 for coal, 25 for fission with gas centrifuge enriched uranium and 7 for gaseous diffusion enriched uranium. The normalized CO₂ emissions, in tonnes of CO₂ per GW_eh, ranges from 14 to 33 for the wind systems, 974 for coal, and 10 and 34 for nuclear fission using gas centrifuge and gaseous diffusion enriched uranium, respectively.  相似文献   

数据备份服务器备份性能分析     

任晖  肖广建 《测绘学院学报》2005,22(1):76-78

针对数据备份服务器备份性能优化问题，分别对实时数据存储与历史数据备份之间的关系、数据备份服务器所备份的数据类型非唯一性、客户数量对备份服务器备份效率的影响三方面进行初步的测试与分析，提出了通过优化数据块的选取、优化数据采集方式、优化备份策略提高备份服务器备份效率的基本方法。  相似文献   

山西沁水盆地煤层气成藏的微观动力能条件研究   总被引：2，自引：4，他引：2  

吴财芳  秦勇  傅雪海  曾勇 《现代地质》2005,19(3):449-457

煤层气成藏的微观动力能条件主要包括煤储层的孔隙—裂隙系统、煤储层的生气作用和储气作用两个方面。以山西沁水盆地为例,深入剖析了煤储层的孔隙—裂隙系统及其发育历程、煤储层的生气作用与能量聚散,阐明了煤层气成藏的微观动力能对成藏效应的控制作用。结果表明:构造作用对储层渗透率具有明显的控制作用,成烃增压致使能量聚集,成为盖层突破作用的主要驱动力,而能量放散则主要是通过煤储层孔隙—裂隙系统的产生、发展。根据上述研究成果,沁水盆地煤层气成藏的地质区划结果为:盆地南部的有利区带为阳城和晋城的北部地区,包括潘庄、樊庄、郑庄等地区;盆地中部的有利区带为安泽—沁源地区,位于盆地西斜坡的中南部;盆地北部的可能有利区带为寿阳东南部地区,位于榆次东北部和阳泉西南部之间。  相似文献   

注水煤体应力能 V-f 转化与释放机理研究   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

李宗翔  孙平  刘海义 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2005,16(2):67-70

文章分析了在煤层注水湿润后煤体弹性能的转化与消耗过程，给出在湿润状态下能量由体变弹性能向形变弹性能转化进而自耗释放的理论模型。指出在坚硬干燥煤体中，注水后在水压力和毛细力的切割作用下，裂隙大量扩展，丰富了自由裂隙，产生更多的裂隙启发(裂隙切口)，使原来近似的刚性煤体变成由裂隙分割的块体组成的组合体或半组合体。裂隙中水的粘滞作用及水分子吸附力使块体问粘性结合、刚度降低、形变增大。煤体形变弹性能自身消耗释放的形式有3种：产生剪应力导致自由裂隙问错动摩擦；强度降低，使裂隙启发被劈裂成自由裂隙；湿润煤体蠕变性增强，产生整体性移动作功。初步给出能量消耗的量化表达式。通过这一理论，能建立煤层注水湿润度与冲击地压灾害发生的更直接的关系，使进一步量化该关系成为可能。从更深层次解释煤层注水防治冲击地压的机理。  相似文献   

东中国海海温的一维模式研究     

秦正坤  孙照渤 《南京气象学院学报》2005,28(4):477-482

根据近海深度浅、热容量小的特点，建立了一个一维能量平衡模式，对东中国海年平均海温进行了模拟。模式较好地模拟出了平均海温的经向分布与纬向分布情况，结果与观测基本相符。同时还检验了模式对海温年际变化的模拟能力，得到了较好的结果。最后简要分析了能量平衡模式应用在近海上的优缺点。  相似文献